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Santa Fe vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 01:05

Santa Fe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

UPCOMING

Jaguares

PPG 0.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.6%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.0%1-16.6%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.4%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-17.1%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.9%4+-18.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 76.3% 1.31 -12.5%

Draw 19.0% 22.0% 4.55 -8.1%

Away win 14.2% 9.1% 11.00 +33.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 30.8% 3.25 +19.3%

BTTS 47.2% 43.5% 2.30 +8.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Away O1.5 16.7% 15.4% 6.50 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 6.6%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe2.5

Jaguares0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.71

JAGUARES · PPG 0.18

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.95 for Home, form 1.71 vs 0.18 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 66.8%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -12.5%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -8.1%

Jaguares (A) 14.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face Jaguares in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Jaguares 14%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Santa Fe and 0.6 for Jaguares (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.18 for Jaguares. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.3%.

Santa Fe vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions