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Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 23:00

Bucaramanga

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

UPCOMING

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-16.1%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-110.6%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.4%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 50.8% 1.97 +5.4%

Draw 24.6% 30.3% 3.30 -11.3%

Away win 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Away O1.5 18.2% 28.2% 3.55 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucaramanga1.7

Águilas Doradas0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCARAMANGA · PPG 1.64

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bucaramanga (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +5.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.3%

Águilas Doradas (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucaramanga face Águilas Doradas in Colombia - Primera A on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucaramanga a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Águilas Doradas 22%, so Bucaramanga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bucaramanga and 0.7 for Águilas Doradas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucaramanga are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Águilas Doradas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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