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Deportivo Madryn vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Godoy Cruz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 42.9% — a clear edge.

+24.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.0%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-111.3%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 42.9% 2.33 +24.7%

Draw 24.6% 35.7% 2.80 -18.7%

Away win 21.9% 31.3% 3.20 -17.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 37.0% 2.70 +36.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 18.2% 5.50 +34.7%

BTTS 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Home O1.5 48.7% 35.7% 2.80 +36.4%

Away O1.5 18.2% 28.2% 3.55 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0✓ 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Madryn1.6

Godoy Cruz0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.83

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Madryn (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +24.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.7%

Godoy Cruz (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Madryn face Godoy Cruz in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Madryn a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Godoy Cruz 22%, so Deportivo Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportivo Madryn and 0.7 for Godoy Cruz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Madryn are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Godoy Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +52.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Madryn vs Godoy Cruz Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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