Today / Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 / Sporting CP U23 vs Benfica U23

Sporting CP U23 vs Benfica U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 19:00

Sporting CP U23

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Benfica U23

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.6%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.8%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.6%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 34.5% 2.90 +13.7%

Draw 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

Away win 29.0% 47.6% 2.10 -23.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 58.8% 1.70 -23.8%

Over 3.5 28.2% 36.4% 2.75 -13.5%

BTTS 49.2% 63.7% 1.57 -22.8%

Home O1.5 37.6% 42.6% 2.35 -11.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 51.8% 1.93 -36.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP U231.3

Benfica U231.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP U23 · PPG 1.22

BENFICA U23 · PPG 1.48

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP U23 (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +13.7%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +11.3%

Benfica U23 (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP U23 face Benfica U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP U23 a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Benfica U23 29%, so Sporting CP U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sporting CP U23 and 1.1 for Benfica U23 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP U23 are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.48 for Benfica U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Sporting CP U23 vs Benfica U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 Predictions