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Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Al Zawra'a

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWW ·

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Naft Maysan

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-110.7%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.0%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-17.9%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 60.6% 1.65 -29.5%

Draw 33.5% 29.4% 3.40 +13.9%

Away win 23.8% 21.1% 4.75 +7.8%

Over 2.5 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

Over 3.5 20.3% 27.2% 3.68 -15.2%

BTTS 43.7% 51.0% 1.96 -14.3%

Home O1.5 33.1% 52.1% 1.92 -36.4%

Away O1.5 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Zawra'a1.2

Naft Maysan0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ZAWRA'A · PPG 1.57

NAFT MAYSAN · PPG 1.30

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Zawra'a (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -29.5%

Draw 33.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +13.9%

Naft Maysan (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Zawra'a face Naft Maysan in Iraq - Iraqi League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Zawra'a a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Naft Maysan 24%, so Al Zawra'a are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Zawra'a and 0.8 for Naft Maysan (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Zawra'a are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.30 for Naft Maysan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Zawra'a vs Naft Maysan Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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