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Leones de Rosario vs Deportivo Muñiz Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Leones de Rosario

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Muñiz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.9%0-112.6%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.7%1-111.9%1-23.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.8%2-15.6%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.1%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 58.8% 1.70 -24.2%

Draw 32.2% 32.3% 3.10 -0.2%

Away win 23.2% 19.0% 5.25 +13.1%

Over 2.5 34.2% 38.5% 2.60 -11.1%

Over 3.5 14.5% 20.0% 5.00 -16.5%

BTTS 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 46.5% 2.15 -33.6%

Away O1.5 15.6% 19.0% 5.25 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 45% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.7%

#2 0–0 21.9%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones de Rosario0.9

Deportivo Muñiz0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES DE ROSARIO · PPG 1.42

DEPORTIVO MUÑIZ · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.52 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones de Rosario (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -24.2%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.2%

Deportivo Muñiz (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones de Rosario face Deportivo Muñiz in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones de Rosario a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Muñiz 23%, so Leones de Rosario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Leones de Rosario and 0.6 for Deportivo Muñiz (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones de Rosario are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Muñiz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Leones de Rosario vs Deportivo Muñiz Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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