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Leandro N. Alem vs Juventud Unida Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 22 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Leandro N. Alem

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Juventud Unida

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+13.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.9%0-27.7%0-33.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.9%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.1%2-17.2%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.0%3-12.8%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 30.8% 3.25 -1.7%

Draw 26.3% 34.7% 2.88 -14.5%

Away win 43.8% 46.5% 2.15 -5.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 38.2% 2.62 +32.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 20.0% 5.00 +26.1%

BTTS 52.7% 46.5% 2.15 +13.3%

Home O1.5 31.2% 26.7% 3.75 +17.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 37.3% 2.68 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–2✓ 8.8%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leandro N. Alem1.2

Juventud Unida1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEANDRO N. ALEM · PPG 1.50

JUVENTUD UNIDA · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leandro N. Alem (H) 29.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.5%

Juventud Unida (A) 43.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leandro N. Alem face Juventud Unida in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leandro N. Alem a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Juventud Unida 44%, so Juventud Unida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leandro N. Alem and 1.4 for Juventud Unida (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leandro N. Alem are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Juventud Unida. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Leandro N. Alem vs Juventud Unida Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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