Today / I. Medelin vs Boyaca Chico

I. Medelin vs Boyaca Chico Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

I. Medelin

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Boyaca Chico

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.14), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-11.6%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.9%1-14.9%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-17.4%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.5%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.3%4+-111.9%4+-23.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.9% — — —

Draw 10.3% — — —

Away win 4.8% — — —

Over 2.5 70.4% — — —

Over 3.5 49.3% — — —

BTTS 43.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.8%

H 85% / xG 3.0-0.6 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.1%

#2 2–0✓ 12.0%

#3 4–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

I. Medelin3.0

Boyaca Chico0.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.3%

Form & verdict PPG

I. MEDELIN · PPG 1.14

BOYACA CHICO · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.14), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

I. Medelin (H) 84.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 10.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boyaca Chico (A) 4.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

I. Medelin face Boyaca Chico on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives I. Medelin a 85% chance, the draw 10% and Boyaca Chico 5%, so I. Medelin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for I. Medelin and 0.6 for Boyaca Chico (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, I. Medelin are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.13 for Boyaca Chico. This match finished 2-0.

I. Medelin vs Boyaca Chico Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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