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Cebrayil vs Mingachevir Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 23 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 12:00

Cebrayil

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mingachevir

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.5%0-27.8%0-36.2%0-4+6.5%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.4%1-37.5%1-4+7.9%2 2-02.0%2-14.8%2-25.7%2-34.5%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.0% 16.1% 6.20 +11.6%

Draw 18.6% 26.3% 3.80 -29.3%

Away win 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Over 2.5 69.7% 57.8% 1.73 +20.6%

Over 3.5 48.4% — — —

BTTS 63.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.7%

A 63% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cebrayil1.2

Mingachevir2.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CEBRAYIL · PPG 1.60

MINGACHEVIR · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cebrayil (H) 18.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +11.6%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -29.3%

Mingachevir (A) 63.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cebrayil face Mingachevir in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cebrayil a 18% chance, the draw 19% and Mingachevir 63%, so Mingachevir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cebrayil and 2.4 for Mingachevir (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cebrayil are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Mingachevir. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Cebrayil vs Mingachevir Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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