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CSKA Sofia II vs Ludogorets II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 15:00

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 2.05 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ludogorets II

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.6%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-19.4%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-16.4%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 70.4% 1.42 -9.4%

Draw 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

Away win 15.2% 16.0% 6.25 -3.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.0% 2.78 -11.6%

BTTS 51.1% 54.6% 1.83 -6.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 62.9% 1.59 -10.5%

Away O1.5 18.2% 24.4% 4.10 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.1%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 1–1✓ 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Sofia II2.0

Ludogorets II0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 2.05

LUDOGORETS II · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Sofia II (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -9.4%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.4%

Ludogorets II (A) 15.2%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Sofia II face Ludogorets II in Bulgaria - Second League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Sofia II a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Ludogorets II 15%, so CSKA Sofia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for CSKA Sofia II and 0.7 for Ludogorets II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Sofia II are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.18 for Ludogorets II. This match finished 1-1.

CSKA Sofia II vs Ludogorets II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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