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Barcelona SC vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 23:00

Barcelona SC

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mushuc Runa

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-15.5%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.6%1-19.6%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-14.9%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-13.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 61.7% 1.62 +8.2%

Draw 22.2% 27.4% 3.65 -19.0%

Away win 11.0% 17.9% 5.60 -38.4%

Over 2.5 40.3% 50.0% 2.00 -19.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 28.6% 3.50 -30.0%

BTTS 34.7% 52.4% 1.91 -33.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob34.7%

H 67% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona SC1.8

Mushuc Runa0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA SC · PPG 2.50

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

63%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona SC (H) 66.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +8.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -19.0%

Mushuc Runa (A) 11.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona SC face Mushuc Runa in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona SC a 67% chance, the draw 22% and Mushuc Runa 11%, so Barcelona SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Barcelona SC and 0.5 for Mushuc Runa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona SC are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Mushuc Runa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Barcelona SC vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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