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Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Malavan

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Fajr Sepasi

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-110.7%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.8%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-17.6%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-13.0%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 44.1% 2.27 +0.8%

Draw 31.9% 32.8% 3.05 -2.7%

Away win 23.7% 32.3% 3.10 -15.9%

Over 2.5 37.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.0% — — —

BTTS 43.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 18.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1✓ 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malavan1.2

Fajr Sepasi0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MALAVAN · PPG 1.87

FAJR SEPASI · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Malavan (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.27 · IMPLIED 44.1% EV +0.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -2.7%

Fajr Sepasi (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malavan face Fajr Sepasi in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malavan a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Fajr Sepasi 24%, so Malavan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Malavan and 0.7 for Fajr Sepasi (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malavan are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.10 for Fajr Sepasi. This match finished 0-1.

Malavan vs Fajr Sepasi Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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