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Ecuador - Liga Pro
Regular Season - 10
Alejandro Serrano Aguilar· Cuenca
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
20:30
D. Cuenca
PPG 1.25
1-3
MISS
Orense
PPG 0.25
Over3.5· +85.2%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
77.6%
Odds: 1.97
EV: +52.9%
Draw
14.2%
Odds: 3.35
EV: -52.4%
Away
8.2%
Odds: 3.85
EV: -68.4%
Model lean:
Home
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
65.9%
Odds: 2.20
+45.0%
Over 3.5
44.1%
Odds: 4.20
+85.2%
BTTS
49.1%
Odds: 1.91
-6.2%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-0
✘
2nd
3-0
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
2-1
✘
5th
3-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
D. Cuenca
2.64
Orense
0.75
Model Suggestion
Home
+52.9%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+85.2%)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME
Home team in AVERAGE form (1.25), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus