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D. Cuenca vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 20:30

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Orense

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 77.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.8% — a clear edge.

+52.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.5%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.9%1-16.7%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-19.7%4+-23.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.6% 50.8% 1.97 +52.9%

Draw 14.2% 29.9% 3.35 -52.4%

Away win 8.2% 26.0% 3.85 -68.4%

Over 2.5 65.9% 45.5% 2.20 +45.0%

Over 3.5 44.1% 23.8% 4.20 +85.2%

BTTS 49.1% 52.4% 1.91 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 78% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Cuenca2.6

Orense0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.25

ORENSE · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

59%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.25), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

D. Cuenca (H) 77.6%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +52.9%

Draw 14.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -52.4%

Orense (A) 8.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -68.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Cuenca face Orense in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Cuenca a 78% chance, the draw 14% and Orense 8%, so D. Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for D. Cuenca and 0.8 for Orense (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Cuenca are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.25 for Orense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +85.2%. This match finished 1-3.

D. Cuenca vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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