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Ferro Carril Oeste vs All Boys Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 23:00

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

All Boys

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-16.3%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.6%1-19.7%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.9%2-17.5%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.1%3-13.8%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 61.0% 1.64 -6.2%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 18.2% 17.9% 5.60 +1.1%

Over 2.5 43.5% 37.0% 2.70 +17.4%

Over 3.5 23.2% 16.7% 6.00 +23.5%

BTTS 43.7% 40.8% 2.45 +7.1%

Home O1.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Away O1.5 15.1% 16.7% 6.00 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.7%

H 57% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.6%

#2 2–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 0–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril Oeste1.5

All Boys0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 1.83

ALL BOYS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril Oeste (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -6.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

All Boys (A) 18.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste face All Boys in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril Oeste a 57% chance, the draw 25% and All Boys 18%, so Ferro Carril Oeste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.5 for All Boys (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril Oeste are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.50 for All Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs All Boys Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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