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Patriotas vs Depor FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 22:30

Patriotas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Depor FC

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.0%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 31.5% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 24.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0✓ 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patriotas1.8

Depor FC0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRIOTAS · PPG 2.00

DEPOR FC · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Patriotas (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Depor FC (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Patriotas face Depor FC in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patriotas a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Depor FC 22%, so Patriotas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Patriotas and 0.9 for Depor FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patriotas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Depor FC. This match finished 2-0.

Patriotas vs Depor FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions