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Real Santander vs Ind. Yumbo Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 20:30

Real Santander

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ind. Yumbo

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-115.2%0-210.6%0-34.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.0%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.7%2-15.1%2-23.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 47.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.2%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Santander0.8

Ind. Yumbo1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.80

IND. YUMBO · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Santander (H) 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ind. Yumbo (A) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Santander face Ind. Yumbo in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Santander a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Ind. Yumbo 48%, so Ind. Yumbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Real Santander and 1.4 for Ind. Yumbo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Santander are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.56 for Ind. Yumbo. This match finished 1-0.

Real Santander vs Ind. Yumbo Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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