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Sporting Braga U23 vs Gil Vicente U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Sporting Braga U23

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWD ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gil Vicente U23

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.5%0-23.1%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.3%1-17.5%1-26.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.9%3-25.2%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.2%4+-24.6%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 48.8% 2.05 -2.6%

Draw 22.6% 32.3% 3.10 -18.0%

Away win 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 68.2% 58.8% 1.70 +15.9%

Over 3.5 45.8% 39.1% 2.56 +17.3%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 63.7% 54.1% 1.85 +17.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 40.8% 2.45 +17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Braga U232.2

Gil Vicente U231.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING BRAGA U23 · PPG 1.33

GIL VICENTE U23 · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Braga U23 (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.0%

Gil Vicente U23 (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Braga U23 face Gil Vicente U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Braga U23 a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Gil Vicente U23 30%, so Sporting Braga U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sporting Braga U23 and 1.8 for Gil Vicente U23 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Braga U23 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.25 for Gil Vicente U23. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Sporting Braga U23 vs Gil Vicente U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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