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Club Atlético Güemes vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico DE Rafaela

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-113.7%0-25.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.2%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.8%2-16.4%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 42.0% 2.38 -12.7%

Draw 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

Away win 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Over 2.5 34.2% 34.5% 2.90 -0.8%

Over 3.5 18.0% 15.4% 6.50 +10.2%

BTTS 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.7%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 16.7%

#2 1–0 16.2%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Atlético Güemes1.0

Atletico DE Rafaela0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 1.17

ATLETICO DE RAFAELA · PPG 0.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.79 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Atlético Güemes (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -12.7%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -9.3%

Atletico DE Rafaela (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Atlético Güemes face Atletico DE Rafaela in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Atlético Güemes a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Atletico DE Rafaela 30%, so Club Atlético Güemes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Club Atlético Güemes and 0.8 for Atletico DE Rafaela (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Atlético Güemes are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Atletico DE Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Atletico DE Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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