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Torpedo Zhodino vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:30

Torpedo Zhodino

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FC Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-110.9%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.3%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 23.2% 22.2% 4.50 +2.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.6% 3.62 +2.3%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 23.0% 4.35 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0✓ 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Zhodino1.7

FC Dnepr Mogilev0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO ZHODINO · PPG 1.20

FC DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Zhodino (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Zhodino face FC Dnepr Mogilev in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Zhodino a 53% chance, the draw 24% and FC Dnepr Mogilev 23%, so Torpedo Zhodino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Torpedo Zhodino and 0.7 for FC Dnepr Mogilev (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Zhodino are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.56 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Torpedo Zhodino vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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