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Vihren vs Fratria Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 15:00

Vihren

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fratria

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.9%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.9%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.1%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 45.5% 2.20 -10.5%

Draw 28.6% 31.3% 3.20 -5.1%

Away win 30.7% 34.7% 2.88 -11.6%

Over 2.5 46.7% 46.5% 2.15 +0.4%

Over 3.5 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

BTTS 52.2% 56.2% 1.78 -7.1%

Home O1.5 33.1% 43.1% 2.32 -23.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 35.7% 2.80 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vihren1.2

Fratria1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIHREN · PPG 1.73

FRATRIA · PPG 1.85

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vihren (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.1%

Fratria (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vihren face Fratria in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vihren a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Fratria 31%, so Vihren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vihren and 1.0 for Fratria (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vihren are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.85 for Fratria. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Vihren vs Fratria Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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