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Junior vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 01:15

Junior

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Once Caldas

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.2%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.6%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 54.6% 1.83 -14.4%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 28.8% 25.0% 4.00 +9.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

BTTS 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 52.4% 1.91 -6.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 29.4% 3.40 +12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior1.7

Once Caldas1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.71

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Once Caldas (A) 28.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Once Caldas 29%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Junior and 1.1 for Once Caldas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.25 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Junior vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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