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Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:30

Criciuma

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Fortaleza EC

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.4%0-110.3%0-22.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.2%1-111.2%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-16.0%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.3%3-12.2%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 51.3% 1.95 -11.3%

Draw 31.9% 33.3% 3.00 -4.3%

Away win 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Over 2.5 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 3.5 16.6% 20.0% 5.00 -10.2%

BTTS 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 44.4% 2.25 -31.1%

Away O1.5 16.4% 22.2% 4.50 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.2%

#2 0–0 20.4%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 1–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma1.1

Fortaleza EC0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.27

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -11.3%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.3%

Fortaleza EC (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Fortaleza EC in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Fortaleza EC 23%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Criciuma and 0.5 for Fortaleza EC (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.92 for Fortaleza EC. This match finished 0-2.

Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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