Today / Colombia - Primera A / Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros

Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:05

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Llaneros

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-19.9%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-112.8%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.3%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.6%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 52.4% 1.91 -14.2%

Draw 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -12.5%

Away win 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1✓ 9.9%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pasto1.3

Llaneros0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.54

LLANEROS · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pasto (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -14.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.5%

Llaneros (A) 28.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pasto face Llaneros in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pasto a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Llaneros 29%, so Deportivo Pasto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Pasto and 0.8 for Llaneros (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pasto are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.17 for Llaneros. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Deportivo Pasto vs Llaneros Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions