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Operario-PR vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:00

Operario-PR

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vila Nova

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.3%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.1%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 48.8% 2.05 -26.0%

Draw 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.5%

Away win 39.0% 28.6% 3.50 +36.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 45.5% 2.20 +18.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 44.4% 2.25 -10.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 28.6% 3.50 +30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 0–0✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario-PR1.4

Vila Nova1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 1.75

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Operario-PR (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.5%

Vila Nova (A) 39.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario-PR face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario-PR a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Vila Nova 39%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Operario-PR and 1.3 for Vila Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario-PR are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Operario-PR vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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