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Smouha vs Ceramica C. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 3 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:00

Smouha

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Ceramica C.

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-112.5%0-24.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-16.3%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 33.6% 2.98 +27.0%

Draw 33.7% 34.5% 2.90 -2.3%

Away win 23.8% 41.0% 2.44 -41.9%

Over 2.5 23.5% 37.7% 2.65 -37.7%

Over 3.5 8.9% 19.0% 5.25 -53.3%

BTTS 30.9% 47.6% 2.10 -35.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob30.9%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 0–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smouha1.0

Ceramica C.0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.5% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SMOUHA · PPG 1.64

CERAMICA C. · PPG 1.45

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away AVERAGE (1.45)

Win probability 1X2

Smouha (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +27.0%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -2.3%

Ceramica C. (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -41.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smouha face Ceramica C. in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smouha a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Ceramica C. 24%, so Smouha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Smouha and 0.7 for Ceramica C. (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smouha are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.45 for Ceramica C.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Smouha vs Ceramica C. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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