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Delfin vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:00

Delfin

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

I. del Valle

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.8%0-114.3%0-23.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.0%1-110.2%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.8%2-13.6%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.9%3-10.9%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 23.0% 4.35 +61.0%

Draw 41.9% 29.9% 3.35 +40.4%

Away win 21.1% 54.3% 1.84 -61.2%

Over 2.5 11.6% 44.4% 2.25 -73.9%

Over 3.5 3.2% 23.8% 4.20 -86.6%

BTTS 19.0% 50.0% 2.00 -62.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob19.0%

H 37% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 12% / NoBTTS 19%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.8%

#2 1–0 22.0%

#3 0–1✓ 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin0.7

I. del Valle0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 11.6% · O3.5 PROB 3.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN · PPG 2.00

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Delfin (H) 37.0%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +61.0%

Draw 41.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +40.4%

I. del Valle (A) 21.1%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -61.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin face I. del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin a 37% chance, the draw 42% and I. del Valle 21%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Delfin and 0.5 for I. del Valle (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 12% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 19% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.25 for I. del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +61.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Delfin vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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