Today / Colombia - Primera A / Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional

Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Fortaleza FC

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Nacional

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.5%0-26.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.9%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.2%2-17.5%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 26.7% 3.75 +34.3%

Draw 27.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.3%

Away win 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

Over 2.5 48.0% 48.8% 2.05 -1.6%

Over 3.5 27.8% 27.0% 3.70 +1.7%

BTTS 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 30.3% 3.30 +1.0%

Away O1.5 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.2%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza FC1.1

Atletico Nacional1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA FC · PPG 1.83

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza FC (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +34.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.3%

Atletico Nacional (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza FC face Atletico Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza FC a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Nacional 37%, so Atletico Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Fortaleza FC and 1.2 for Atletico Nacional (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza FC are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.60 for Atletico Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Fortaleza FC vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions