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Ponte Preta vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Avai

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.5%0-28.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 22.2% 4.50 +18.0%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Over 2.5 52.9% 48.1% 2.08 +10.0%

Over 3.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 25.0% 4.00 +22.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–2✓ 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta1.1

Avai1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.58

AVAI · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 28.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +18.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Avai (A) 45.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Avai 46%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ponte Preta and 1.5 for Avai (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.58 points per game versus 0.73 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Ponte Preta vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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