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Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Quilmes

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.2%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.6%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 46.5% 2.15 +9.7%

Draw 24.7% 34.5% 2.90 -17.0%

Away win 24.4% 28.6% 3.50 -8.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 41.7% 2.40 +20.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.5% 48.8% 2.05 +7.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 40.0% 2.50 +18.5%

Away O1.5 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.5%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.5%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.6

Quilmes0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 1.92

QUILMES · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.0%

Quilmes (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Quilmes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Quilmes 24%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.8 for Quilmes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.58 for Quilmes. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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