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Chacarita Juniors vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-112.7%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.8%1-112.6%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.3%2-16.3%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 38.2% 2.62 +7.2%

Draw 32.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.4%

Away win 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Over 2.5 34.5% 29.4% 3.40 +17.3%

Over 3.5 18.2% 14.3% 7.00 +16.4%

BTTS 43.6% 42.0% 2.38 +3.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 25.0% 4.00 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.9%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita Juniors1.0

San Martin Tucuman0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 1.75

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita Juniors (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +7.2%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.4%

San Martin Tucuman (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita Juniors face San Martin Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita Juniors a 41% chance, the draw 32% and San Martin Tucuman 27%, so Chacarita Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.7 for San Martin Tucuman (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita Juniors are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.08 for San Martin Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Chacarita Juniors vs San Martin Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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