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Puerto Nuevo vs Defensores de Cambaceres Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Puerto Nuevo

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Defensores de Cambaceres

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-110.8%0-24.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.9%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-17.7%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 42.0% 2.38 +12.1%

Draw 28.3% 36.4% 2.75 -13.3%

Away win 24.6% 34.5% 2.90 -17.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 33.3% 3.00 +28.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 16.7% 6.00 +14.2%

BTTS 47.6% 40.0% 2.50 +19.0%

Home O1.5 32.4% 29.4% 3.40 +10.2%

Away O1.5 18.5% 25.0% 4.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Nuevo1.2

Defensores de Cambaceres0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO NUEVO · PPG 1.17

DEFENSORES DE CAMBACERES · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Nuevo (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +12.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.3%

Defensores de Cambaceres (A) 24.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Nuevo face Defensores de Cambaceres in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Nuevo a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Defensores de Cambaceres 25%, so Puerto Nuevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Puerto Nuevo and 0.8 for Defensores de Cambaceres (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Nuevo are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Defensores de Cambaceres. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Puerto Nuevo vs Defensores de Cambaceres Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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