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El Porvenir vs Central Ballester Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

El Porvenir

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Central Ballester

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-113.5%0-25.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.1%2-16.5%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 52.4% 1.91 -30.9%

Draw 33.9% 34.5% 2.90 -1.7%

Away win 29.9% 25.0% 4.00 +11.8%

Over 2.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

Over 3.5 18.2% 18.2% 5.50 +0.1%

BTTS 45.2% 38.2% 2.62 +18.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 20.0% 5.00 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.2%

D 34% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 16.7%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Porvenir1.0

Central Ballester0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PORVENIR · PPG 1.08

CENTRAL BALLESTER · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.79 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Porvenir (H) 36.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -30.9%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.7%

Central Ballester (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Porvenir face Central Ballester in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Porvenir a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Central Ballester 30%, so El Porvenir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Porvenir and 0.8 for Central Ballester (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Porvenir are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.17 for Central Ballester. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 0-0.

El Porvenir vs Central Ballester Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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