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Hebar 1918 vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.1%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.1%1-111.2%1-27.8%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 46.5% 2.15 -7.8%

Draw 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Away win 33.5% 34.5% 2.90 -2.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 29.2% 3.42 +25.2%

BTTS 61.3% 57.5% 1.74 +6.7%

Home O1.5 47.4% 45.0% 2.22 +5.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 35.2% 2.84 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 1–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hebar 19181.6

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.04

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hebar 1918 (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hebar 1918 face Chernomorets 1919 Burgas in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hebar 1918 a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 34%, so Hebar 1918 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hebar 1918 and 1.4 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hebar 1918 are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.15 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Hebar 1918 vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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