Today / Z. Pancevo vs Red Star

Z. Pancevo vs Red Star Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Z. Pancevo

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Red Star

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-110.4%0-29.7%0-36.0%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.9%2-15.4%2-25.1%2-33.1%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 57.1% — — —

Over 2.5 55.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 54.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.1%

A 57% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Z. Pancevo1.0

Red Star1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

Z. PANCEVO · PPG 2.13

RED STAR · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Z. Pancevo (H) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Red Star (A) 57.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Z. Pancevo face Red Star on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Z. Pancevo a 20% chance, the draw 23% and Red Star 57%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Z. Pancevo and 1.9 for Red Star (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Z. Pancevo are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 2.33 for Red Star. This match finished 2-2.

Z. Pancevo vs Red Star Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions