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ML Vitebsk vs Bate Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bate Borisov

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-15.1%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.3%1-19.3%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.1%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-13.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 69.4% 1.44 -11.3%

Draw 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Away win 16.0% 16.7% 6.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Over 3.5 28.3% 34.6% 2.89 -10.9%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 49.0% 59.5% 1.68 -17.7%

Away O1.5 16.4% 24.1% 4.15 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 2–0 15.7%

#3 0–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk1.8

Bate Borisov0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.71

BATE BORISOV · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -11.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Bate Borisov (A) 16.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Bate Borisov in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Bate Borisov 16%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for ML Vitebsk and 0.5 for Bate Borisov (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.62 for Bate Borisov. This match finished 0-0.

ML Vitebsk vs Bate Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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