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Oliveirense vs Benfica B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 30 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:00

Oliveirense

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Benfica B

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.9%0-27.6%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.1%1-112.6%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.3%2-17.3%2-25.0%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.0%3-12.8%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Draw 26.5% 29.4% 3.40 -9.9%

Away win 42.1% 45.0% 2.22 -6.5%

Over 2.5 46.7% 56.5% 1.77 -17.3%

Over 3.5 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -27.2%

BTTS 51.4% 62.5% 1.60 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oliveirense1.2

Benfica B1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIVEIRENSE · PPG 1.29

BENFICA B · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Oliveirense (H) 31.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.9%

Benfica B (A) 42.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oliveirense face Benfica B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oliveirense a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Benfica B 42%, so Benfica B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Oliveirense and 1.4 for Benfica B (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oliveirense are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Benfica B. This match finished 3-0.

Oliveirense vs Benfica B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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