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Niendorfer TSV vs Paloma Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Hamburg - 18 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:00

Niendorfer TSV

PPG 1.14 · HOME

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paloma

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.5%0-25.9%0-36.5%0-4+12.5%1 1-01.3%1-14.3%1-27.2%1-37.9%1-4+15.3%2 2-00.8%2-12.6%2-24.4%2-34.8%2-4+9.3%3 3-00.3%3-11.1%3-21.8%3-32.0%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.2% — — —

Draw 12.4% — — —

Away win 77.5% — — —

Over 2.5 83.1% — — —

Over 3.5 66.4% — — —

BTTS 68.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob68.0%

A 78% / xG 1.2-3.3 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 1–2 7.2%

#3 1–4 6.6%

#4 0–3 6.5%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Niendorfer TSV1.2

Paloma3.3

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 66.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NIENDORFER TSV · PPG 1.14

PALOMA · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.14) vs Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Niendorfer TSV (H) 10.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 12.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paloma (A) 77.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Niendorfer TSV face Paloma in Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Niendorfer TSV a 10% chance, the draw 12% and Paloma 78%, so Paloma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Niendorfer TSV and 3.3 for Paloma (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Niendorfer TSV are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.62 for Paloma. This match finished 5-3.

Niendorfer TSV vs Paloma Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hamburg

Match Preview & Prediction

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