Today / Grossaspach vs Freiberg

Grossaspach vs Freiberg Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Grossaspach

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiberg

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.6%0-24.9%0-33.5%0-4+3.0%1 1-03.7%1-17.9%1-28.4%1-35.9%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.1%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.8%3-13.8%3-24.0%3-32.9%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 48.0% — — —

Over 2.5 73.6% — — —

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 72.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob72.1%

A 48% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.4%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grossaspach1.7

Freiberg2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GROSSASPACH · PPG 2.00

FREIBERG · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Grossaspach (H) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Freiberg (A) 48.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Grossaspach face Freiberg on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grossaspach a 31% chance, the draw 21% and Freiberg 48%, so Freiberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Grossaspach and 2.1 for Freiberg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grossaspach are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.79 for Freiberg. This match finished 4-0.

Grossaspach vs Freiberg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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