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Aragvi Dusheti vs Odishi 1919 Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:00

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Odishi 1919

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+46.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.0%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 40.0% 2.50 +46.5%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -25.4%

Away win 18.1% 40.0% 2.50 -54.8%

Over 2.5 48.4% — — —

Over 3.5 26.6% — — —

BTTS 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.9%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aragvi Dusheti1.8

Odishi 19190.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 2.00

ODISHI 1919 · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=58.6%

Win probability 1X2

Aragvi Dusheti (H) 58.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +46.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.4%

Odishi 1919 (A) 18.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -54.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aragvi Dusheti face Odishi 1919 in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aragvi Dusheti a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Odishi 1919 18%, so Aragvi Dusheti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aragvi Dusheti and 0.9 for Odishi 1919 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aragvi Dusheti are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Odishi 1919. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +46.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Aragvi Dusheti vs Odishi 1919 Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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