Today / Paraguay - Division Intermedia / Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre

Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Tacuary

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

3 de Noviembre

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.5%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.3%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.6%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 44.4% 2.25 +8.2%

Draw 24.2% 33.3% 3.00 -16.4%

Away win 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 48.8% 2.05 +10.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 43.5% 2.30 +12.2%

Away O1.5 30.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuary1.7

3 de Noviembre1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUARY · PPG 1.11

3 DE NOVIEMBRE · PPG 0.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tacuary (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.4%

3 de Noviembre (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuary face 3 de Noviembre in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuary a 48% chance, the draw 24% and 3 de Noviembre 28%, so Tacuary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tacuary and 1.0 for 3 de Noviembre (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuary are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.11 for 3 de Noviembre. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Tacuary vs 3 de Noviembre Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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