Today / France - Feminine Division 1 / Marseille W vs Nantes W

Marseille W vs Nantes W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:45

Marseille W

PPG 0.44 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Nantes W

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.8%0-26.1%0-36.5%0-4+11.8%1 1-01.4%1-14.6%1-27.5%1-38.0%1-4+14.5%2 2-00.9%2-12.8%2-24.6%2-34.9%2-4+8.9%3 3-00.4%3-11.2%3-21.9%3-32.0%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.9% — — —

Draw 13.0% — — —

Away win 76.2% — — —

Over 2.5 82.0% — — —

Over 3.5 64.9% — — —

BTTS 67.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob67.8%

A 76% / xG 1.2-3.2 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.0%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 0–3 6.5%

#4 1–4 6.4%

#5 0–2✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marseille W1.2

Nantes W3.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.0% · O3.5 PROB 64.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MARSEILLE W · PPG 0.44

NANTES W · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Marseille W (H) 10.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nantes W (A) 76.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Marseille W face Nantes W in France - Feminine Division 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marseille W a 11% chance, the draw 13% and Nantes W 76%, so Nantes W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Marseille W and 3.2 for Nantes W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marseille W are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 2.11 for Nantes W. This match finished 0-2.

Marseille W vs Nantes W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Feminine Division 1 Predictions