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Seoul E-Land FC vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:30

Seoul E-Land FC

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paju Citizen

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.9%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.8%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 69.4% 1.44 -24.5%

Draw 24.2% 23.8% 4.20 +1.0%

Away win 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 62.5% 1.60 -13.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 51.3% 66.7% 1.50 -23.1%

Away O1.5 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -25.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seoul E-Land FC1.8

Paju Citizen1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEOUL E-LAND FC · PPG 1.90

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Seoul E-Land FC (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -24.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.0%

Paju Citizen (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seoul E-Land FC face Paju Citizen in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seoul E-Land FC a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Paju Citizen 24%, so Seoul E-Land FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Seoul E-Land FC and 1.0 for Paju Citizen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seoul E-Land FC are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.40 for Paju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Seoul E-Land FC vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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