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OFK Beograd vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 32 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:30

OFK Beograd

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cukaricki

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.9%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.8%1-110.7%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.9%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 52.9% 1.89 -2.7%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -17.2%

Away win 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -9.5%

Over 2.5 58.4% 54.1% 1.85 +8.0%

Over 3.5 36.0% 30.8% 3.25 +17.0%

BTTS 58.9% 57.8% 1.73 +1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.9%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OFK Beograd1.8

Cukaricki1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 0.93

CUKARICKI · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

OFK Beograd (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -2.7%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.2%

Cukaricki (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

OFK Beograd face Cukaricki in Serbia - Super Liga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFK Beograd a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Cukaricki 26%, so OFK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for OFK Beograd and 1.2 for Cukaricki (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFK Beograd are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.93 for Cukaricki. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 0-0.

OFK Beograd vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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