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Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:15

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cucuta

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.4%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-16.5%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-18.8%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.6%3-18.0%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-110.6%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% 76.9% 1.30 -10.9%

Draw 16.3% 20.8% 4.80 -13.1%

Away win 15.2% 11.1% 9.00 +22.1%

Over 2.5 64.6% 55.6% 1.80 +16.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 33.3% 3.00 +30.5%

BTTS 54.7% 47.6% 2.10 +14.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 63.7% 1.57 +2.2%

Away O1.5 22.6% 18.2% 5.50 +14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellin2.7

Cucuta0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.67

CUCUTA · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.89 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellin (H) 68.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -10.9%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.1%

Cucuta (A) 15.2%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellin face Cucuta in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellin a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Cucuta 15%, so Independiente Medellin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Independiente Medellin and 0.8 for Cucuta (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellin are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.38 for Cucuta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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