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Tammeka vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Tammeka

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Levadia

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-15.3%0-27.9%0-37.9%0-4+12.2%1 1-01.9%1-15.6%1-28.3%1-38.2%1-4+12.8%2 2-01.0%2-12.9%2-24.3%2-34.3%2-4+6.7%3 3-00.3%3-11.0%3-21.5%3-31.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.2% 13.3% 7.50 -23.5%

Draw 13.5% 19.0% 5.25 -29.1%

Away win 76.3% 78.7% 1.27 -3.1%

Over 2.5 76.5% 73.5% 1.36 +4.0%

Over 3.5 57.1% 52.4% 1.91 +9.1%

BTTS 61.6% 57.8% 1.73 +6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 84%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob61.6%

A 76% / xG 1.0-3.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.3%

#2 1–3 8.2%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–3 7.9%

#5 1–4 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka1.0

Levadia3.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.5% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.00

LEVADIA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 10.2%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -23.5%

Draw 13.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -29.1%

Levadia (A) 76.3%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 10% chance, the draw 14% and Levadia 76%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tammeka and 3.0 for Levadia (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Tammeka vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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