Today / Harju JK vs Paide

Harju JK vs Paide Prediction

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paide

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.9%0-26.2%0-34.4%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.2%1-18.7%1-29.1%1-36.4%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.7%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.5%3-13.1%3-23.3%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.9% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 52.1% — — —

Over 2.5 69.1% — — —

Over 3.5 47.7% — — —

BTTS 67.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob67.5%

A 52% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–2✓ 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK1.5

Paide2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.00

PAIDE · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paide (A) 52.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Paide on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Paide 52%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Harju JK and 2.1 for Paide (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Paide. This match finished 2-2.

Harju JK vs Paide Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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