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Flora vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 8 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Flora

PPG 2.25 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Narva Trans

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.7%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.4%1-24.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-17.4%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-17.3%4+-24.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Draw 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -19.8%

Away win 17.8% 17.2% 5.80 +3.2%

Over 2.5 66.9% — — —

Over 3.5 45.1% — — —

BTTS 61.4% 61.7% 1.62 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.4%

H 63% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora2.3

Narva Trans1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA · PPG 2.25

NARVA TRANS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Flora (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.5%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -19.8%

Narva Trans (A) 17.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora face Narva Trans in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Narva Trans 18%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Flora and 1.1 for Narva Trans (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Narva Trans. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 6-0.

Flora vs Narva Trans Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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