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Leones Norte vs Manta Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 10 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Manta

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-043.8%0-17.8%0-20.7%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-028.4%1-15.0%1-20.4%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.2%2-11.6%2-20.1%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-10.4%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 52.6% 1.90 -20.0%

Draw 49.0% 30.8% 3.25 +59.3%

Away win 9.0% 23.8% 4.20 -62.2%

Over 2.5 5.1% 42.6% 2.35 -88.0%

Over 3.5 1.0% 22.2% 4.50 -95.5%

BTTS 7.7% 48.8% 2.05 -84.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob7.7%

H 42% / xG 0.6-0.2 / U2.5 5% / NoBTTS 8%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 43.8%

#2 1–0 28.4%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte0.6

Manta0.2

COMBINED 0.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 5.1% · O3.5 PROB 1.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.00

MANTA · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 42.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -20.0%

Draw 49.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +59.3%

Manta (A) 9.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -62.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face Manta in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 42% chance, the draw 49% and Manta 9%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Leones Norte and 0.2 for Manta (0.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 5% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 8% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Manta. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Leones Norte vs Manta Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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