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Santa Fe vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:10

Santa Fe

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

America de Cali

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 37.3% 2.68 +25.7%

Draw 24.3% 33.9% 2.95 -17.0%

Away win 28.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 41.7% 2.40 +21.2%

Over 3.5 30.7% 21.1% 4.75 +45.8%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 44.1% 34.7% 2.88 +27.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 0–0✓ 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe1.5

America de Cali0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.77

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +25.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -17.0%

America de Cali (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face America de Cali in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 47% chance, the draw 24% and America de Cali 29%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santa Fe and 0.9 for America de Cali (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.38 for America de Cali. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Santa Fe vs America de Cali Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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