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Sporting JAX W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX W

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tampa Bay Sun W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.8%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.5%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.4%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.1% — — —

Over 3.5 28.4% — — —

BTTS 49.1% — — —

Home O1.5 48.8% — — —

Away O1.5 25.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX W1.7

Tampa Bay Sun W1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 1.48

TAMPA BAY SUN W · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX W (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tampa Bay Sun W (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX W face Tampa Bay Sun W in USA - USL Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX W a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Tampa Bay Sun W 23%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sporting JAX W and 1.0 for Tampa Bay Sun W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX W are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.22 for Tampa Bay Sun W. This match finished 3-2.

Sporting JAX W vs Tampa Bay Sun W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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